My Predictions for Top 10 Summer Movies @ the Box Office

So having done a bit of research, I present my predictions for the Top 10 summer movies.

1. Iron Man 3 ($350-400 million)

With all the hype surrounding this movie, picking up the kick-off slot for the summer, in addition to being a follow-up of sorts to The Avengers, this is my #1 pick.

2. Star Trek Into Darkness ($300 million)

A bunch of people disagree with me that Man of Steel is going to take spot #2 but I’m convinced that the holding power of the reboot in 2009 and the the huge promotion that has been running since before the Super Bowl will pay off.

3. Despicable Me 2 ($280 million)

I didn’t see the first Despicable Me but it pulled in decent numbers at the box office last go-round. $250 million is nothing to scoff at. I’ve seen blimps floating around my city with one of the minions on it so I can only assume that the ads will ramp up closer to the release date. The minions seem to have played well with the younger demographic so I guess their numbers will only go up.

4. Man of Steel ($260 million)

I initially ranked this much lower in my first draft. I’m of the opinion that if you have to do a reboot only a few years after a previous reboot, it probably won’t do much better and Superman Returns made a respectable $200 million. After reconsidering my bias and watching the new trailer, I pushed Man of Steel up the list a bit. I mean, it does have Nolan onboard and that could be the push the franchise needs to get off the ground.

5. Monsters U ($255 million)

I was really conflicted about this one. I kept going back and forth over whether this or Despicable Me 2 would do better, finally giving it do Despicable Me 2. I’d heard that Monsters was both one of Pixar’s best movies, and that it was more of a dud with the youngsters. Personally, I wasn’t as fond of it as I was of Nemo and Toy Story. Cars 2 didn’t do as great at the box office as most of the other Pixar films so I stayed on the safe side (?) and guessed the Monsters prequel would do about the same as the original.

6. Hangover III ($230 million)

I’m probably reaching here, but since Fast & Furious 6 and Hangover III are generally reaching for the same demographic, given the numbers, most of those people are likely to choose Hangover III. The Hangover franchise has been trending down (Hangover = $277 million, Hangover II = $254 million) and the Fast & Furious franchise has been trending up (F4 = $155 million, F5 = $209 million), but I don’t think we’re at the intersection yet and the fact that the Hangover is back in Vegas could help.

7. Fast & Furious 6 ($220 million)

As I mentioned above, I think this one will do well. Just not as good as Hangover III. It also won’t help that Star Trek will still be in theaters.

8. The Wolverine ($165 million)

Who doesn’t love Hugh Jackman? Although the movie is coming out at the tail-end of July, I still think it will do pretty decent. The first Wolverine origins movie did $180 and even if the Japanese story arc doesn’t thrill as many people (although it should more so than whatever happened during the X-Men Origins: Wolverine movie), it will still put up decent numbers.

9. The Heat ($160 million)

This one was a crapshoot for me. There seems to be decent buzz for it and there doesn’t seem to be too many female-oriented movies out this summer so this one could do well. I asked the lady-friend and she seemed to like it (though I wasn’t as impressed). I got the impression that it would do numbers similar to The Proposal ($163 million) and be a weaker Bridesmaids ($169 million). Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy will likely make it happen.

10. Pacific Rim ($145 million)

This was another movie I was unsure about. It seems to be getting a lot of buzz, but I don’t see it pulling in audiences who wouldn’t normally see a robot and/or Godzilla movie. The most recent trailer swayed me though so it did make my Top 10, though just barely.

Dark Horses (Movies I Think Could Make Top 10 But Didn’t Make the Cut)

Lone Ranger – Westerns are a hard sell; even with Johnny Depp. It is Disney though so the ad campaign will likely be decent.

Epic – Looks like a modern Fern Gully/ Thumbelina. Could do okay but doesn’t have the name draw as some of the other animated pictures. It will be the first to come out though so that should help.

The Great Gatsby – I want this movie to do really well and if only wishing made it so. This movie is smushed between Iron Man 3, and Star Trek Into Darkness and I’m skeptical it will pull in enough people to make the Top 10. Dark Shadows had a similar spot last year and suffered because of it. Being next to Avengers was definitely not the way to go last year. That being said, I think Gatsby will be a popular date flick so here’s hoping…

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Summer Movie Wager 2013

... to get ourselves a treat

Since today is the start of the 2013 summer movie season, I thought it would be fitting to share a game that my friends and I play where we try to predict the Top 10 movies we think are going to do the best at the box office over the summer. In the hopes that this post will help someone else structure their own game for guessing the Top 10 summer movies, I’m posting the rules that we use:

RULES:
1. Pick 10 movies that are released during the summer and rank them in order from #1 (will make the most money) to #10.
2. Pick 3 “Dark Horse” movies. These are picks you think have a chance to make it into the Top 10 but for some reason, probably won’t. These are obviously different than the movies you picked for your Top 10.

The summer movie season is the first weekend in May to the first Monday in September.

SCORING:
– 13 points for getting #1 or #10 dead-on.
– 10 points for getting #2-9 dead-on.
– 7 points if your pick was only one spot away
– 5 points if your pick was two spots away
– 3 points if your pick was anywhere in the Top 10.
– 1 point for each Dark Horse that makes it into the Top 10.

The scoring is done once Labor Day has passed, although I generally like to score the lists every few weeks or so, just to see who is winning. The scoring is tabulated such that you only get the single highest point value for each movie pick. That means if you get #10 right, you only get 13 points; not 13+3 points.

I get the rankings from boxofficemojo.com and only use the domestic box office numbers (U.S. & Canada).